An Inconvenient Thought

Propensity to fight losing battles

We have less land suitable for reforestation than we thought

Dr Susan Cook-Patton and Kurt Fesenmyer, both researchers at the Nature Conservancy, wrote a guest post for Carbon Brief to share their latest results:

In our new study, published in Nature Communications, we unpack eight years of research into reducing these uncertainties.

We have quantified, for example, how the carbon-sucking power of trees changes when you let forests grow back naturally versus planting monoculture or mixed-species plantations.

We figured out how much carbon could be removed at different price points and mapped where trees – somewhat counterintuitively – actually act to warm, rather than cool, our climate.

But, as we shrank the uncertainty, we also shrank the estimate itself.

Our research provides the most precise estimate of global reforestation area to date – 195m hectares, or 71% less than earlier estimates.

Reforesting an area this size could capture 2GtCO2 per year.

Scientists used to think planting trees around the world could absorb 10 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, but turns out we don’t have that much land suitable for reforestation. Climate change mitigation is a great reason to restore forests, but it shouldn’t be the reason to do so.

The whole article is worth a read.